Investment
Perspectives
Research & insights on long-term investment principles, asset classes and portfolio strategy, with a focus on the factors that influence investment decisions over time.
Reflections on the equity risk premium and the Reversion of returns to the mean
An examination of the historical equity risk premium, return variability and mean reversion, with a focus on how investment horizons can influence the characteristics of equity returns.
The curse of the screen / Financial assets vs real estate / A simple example with rising interest rates
A comparison of financial assets and real estate, exploring liquidity, price visibility, investor behaviour and the effects of changing interest rates on asset valuations.
Inflation, interest rates & the Equity risk premium: A critical evaluation of the consesus views.
An examination of the relationship between inflation, interest rates and equity returns, considering how changing economic conditions can influence valuations and the equity risk premium.
Inflation, interest rates and the Equity risk premium : A critical evaluation of the consensus views.
An examination of the interaction between inflation, interest rates and equity markets, and a critical assessment of prevailing market expectations.
Mid summer 2021: Tactics and strategy
A discussion of the distinction between long-term investment strategy and shorter-term tactical decisions in the context of changing market and economic conditions.
On Market Timing
An examination of market timing and the challenges involved in anticipating both market declines and subsequent recoveries, viewed in the context of long-term investment strategy.
Rationality and equilibrium in the economy and in capital markets : From Theory to Practice.
An exploration of economic rationality, market equilibrium and behavioural influences, considering the differences between theoretical models and observed investor behaviour.
Old Truths and Recent Lessons
A reflection on established investment principles in light of recent market events, examining diversification, uncertainty, risk and the importance of investment horizons.
VALUE vs GROWTH
An examination of value and growth investment styles, their historical characteristics and the economic and market factors that can influence their relative performance over time.
Investor Biases; irrationality and common investor mistakes
An exploration of behavioural finance and the cognitive biases that can influence investment decisions, including the effects of emotion, overconfidence and market sentiment.
Plant the seed and watch it grow…
An examination of investment horizons, compounding and historical equity-market behaviour, highlighting the differences between short-term market fluctuations and longer-term fundamental developments.
Owning stocks pays dividends
An examination of the role of dividends in equity investing, including their contribution to historical total returns, income generation and long-term compounding.
The Case for Investing in Stocks – Long Term Evidence
A review of historical evidence on equity, bond and cash returns, examining the relationship between investment horizon, volatility and the historical equity risk premium.
Staying on Course – NR comments from deep in the 2008 crisis
A retrospective look at investment conditions during the 2008 financial crisis, illustrating the uncertainty, volatility and decision-making challenges that can arise during periods of severe market stress.
Recessions and Bear Markers are not created equal
An examination of historical recessions and bear markets, highlighting differences in their causes, duration and market impact and the limitations of treating every downturn in the same way.
“Park Avenue apartments belong to the optimists”
A discussion of long-term investment, economic progress and investor expectations, considering the relationship between risk, uncertainty and participation in productive assets.
Strategy and Tactics
An examination of the distinction between strategic asset allocation and shorter-term tactical positioning, and the different roles they can play within portfolio management.
The views and information presented are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Investment decisions should take into account each investor’s objectives, financial circumstances, risk tolerance, liquidity requirements and investment horizon.