December 2019
A) December 15 is approaching. The decisions and comments on tariffs can lead the Market either higher or substantially lower. Tactically we reduce portfolios Betas
The Case for Investing in Stocks – Long Term Evidence
Equity investors have been rewarded Analysing long term returns of different financial assets it becomes clear that stocks have outperformed bonds and cash. Furthermore, the consistency of outperformance increases with the length of the investment horizon.
Staying on Course – NR comments from deep in the 2008 crisis
While data and financial theory support equities as a superior long term investment to cash and bonds, this can be difficult to remember during large market declines. There have been few periods worse than the 2008 financial crisis; the S&P 500 declined 54% from its 2007 peak, major banks and institutions collapsed or had to be rescued, and to many, it seemed like Armageddon was upon us
Recessions and Bear Markers are not created equal
Very often ‘This time it is different’ is true ! The causes, the length and the severity of recessions and Bear markets are not the same ! Depending on the cause and on the policy actions undertaken the depth and the duration CAN BE VERY DIFFERENT.
“Park Avenue apartments belong to the optimists”
We would like to repeat our longer term view: Valuations relative to bonds and cash are compelling. Following the worst decade since the 1920's (all possible decades are included) we believe that the future of business is brighter and that equities will outperform alternative assets.
Strategy and Tactics
A) A stock market P/E of 19 to 20 means a 10 to 15pct appreciation from current levels. We would welcome it before “a nasty correction”!
Market Comment Q3 2019
Global equity markets have been strong over the first three quarters of 2019, with the Federal Reserve and other central banks easing policy in a coordinated fashion, and solid macroeconomic data in the USA.
May 2019-Be fearful when others are greedy
Equity markets rallied strongly in the first part of 2019, with the S&P 500 staging a 26% rally from its low on Christmas Eve to the recent peak on May 1st, but failure to resolve US-China trade disputes has somewhat dampened investors’ optimism.